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Az1073, Bakı
B.Ağayev küç.100(A)
Tel/Fax: 492-59-07 |
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Monitoring of Seismogedynamic processes |
The territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan has passed the modern geological development history being the structure of the Caucasus segment of the Alps – Himalayas Creased Zone. Complexity of the territory with the multiple tectonic damages, intensity of the geodynamic processes and the complexity of the seismogeological and seismotectonic conditions caused to the severe and devastating earthquake. During the historical period, thousand of people died in the result of devastating earthquake in the territory of the country. In 1139, during Goy – Gol earthquake, more than 250 thousands of people died and there were material losses in great amount. At the begging of XX century, (February 13, 1902) more than 80 thousands of people died, cities and surrounded residential buildings and areas destroyed completely in the result of earthquake of I=9-10 grade (MSK – 64 Division) happened in the Shamakhi seismoactive zone. Though there was not any devastating and catastrophic earthquake during last 100 years, but multiple severe earthquakes have been recorded. Baku earthquake happened on November 25, 2000 (M=6.3) showed that, this region is under the high seismic danger and people are obliged to live under such kind of natural calamity.
One of the main actual problems in the modern science is directed to the preventing of the danger. There are two methods of the solution of the problem: the first is determination of the zones with the high seismoactivity in the region, definition of the main sources that can be generated the seismic processes, investigation of the evolution and formation, physical – mechanical features, their origin and forecasting criteria of them; the second and the main important method is the solution of the problems of the seismic design of the constructions.
Southern and southern – east slopes of Great Caucasus, Ganja – Basarkecher, Upper Garabagh, Lankaran – Lerik, Azerbaijan water area of Caspian and the territories of Nakhchivan AR where more than 3 million people live and consist of more than 30% of the very territory are the territories with the probability of existing of high severe and devastating earthquakes.
Though the areas of striking of the earthquakes of high intensity (I=6-7 grade) are limited areas, earthquake source with I=6-7 grade intensity cover the large territories.
The main factors settling the striking of the severe earthquake in the territory of the country are multiple active depth breaks passing the territory and intensive tectonic processes on these lines. According to the last investigations, 20 seismotectonic blocks have been determined differing from each other according to the seismotectonic, seismogeological and seismological features in the territory of the country (Picture). According to the seismostatistical information, more than 70% of the stricken in the territory of the country are observed in these territories.
Hypocenter line of the earthquake concentrated on the tectonic break lines, hypocenters in their intersection ring usually creates the territorial earthquake sources, intrablock single earthquakes creates the source zones. The hypocentre of the stricken earthquakes in the territory of republic has 4 levels. The first level is related with the mesocainozoic structure complex and corresponds to 0-10 km depths. These earthquakes are related with the Great and Small Caucasus meganticlinals.
The second hypocenter level is in10-20 km depth being till Alps fundamental surface level. The third hypocenter level is in 20-40 km depth is related with the Kur depression, southern slope and Small Caucasus. The forth hypocenter level are the hypocenters located in 40 km depth and generally, is observed in the Kur depression and sinking part of Great Caucasus to Caspian sea.
The complex carried out in Great Caucasus and Kur depression is seismic and seismologic condition of the region according to the seismogeological and seismomodels cuts made in the result of complex geological – geophysiological Exploration and existing of the low speed zone (rhyolite) with different size of thickness (from 7-8 km to 14-17 km) observing in the geological cuts.
According to the seismic division into districts map, the territory of the republic consisted of zones of 8-9 grades. Zones of 9 grades are covered the territories of Samur valley, Shamakhi – Ismayilli, Sheki – Oghuz, Zagatala, Small Caucasus and Nakhchivan AR. Striking of probability of the maximal earthquakes is once per 100 years in seismotectonic blocks of Shamakhi – Ismayilli and Kalbajar, once per 1000 years in Sheki – Oghuz, Zagatala, Caspian Sea, Upper Garabagh and Zangazur, once per 10000 years in other territories. Other territories of the republic are concerned to the zone of 8 grades. Maximal earthquakes are observed once per 100 years in Absheron peninsula and Lankaran – Lerik, and once 1000 per years in other territories.
Main earthquake focus zones of Azerbaijan territory:
Territorial focuses
Linear focuses
1. Zagatala focus zone |
Imax = 92 |
1. Nourthenr Absheron – Caspian focus zone |
Imax=81 |
2. Sheki focus zone |
Imax=92 |
2. Absheron – Balkhanyani focus zone |
Imax= 81 |
3. Shamakhi – Ismayilli focus zone |
Imax=91 |
3. Siyazan focus zone |
Imax= 82 |
4. Yashma – Caspian focus zone |
Imax=81 |
4. Gabala – Shahdagh – Samur focus zone |
Imax=92 |
5. Southern Absheron focus zone |
Imax=8 |
5. Mingachevir – Aghdash focus zone |
Imax=82 |
6. Tovuz – Jeyranchol focus zone |
Imax=82 |
6. Imishli – Saatli focus zone |
Imax = 82 |
7. Zardab focus zone |
Imax=82 |
7. Sabirabad focus zone |
Imax= 82 |
8. Jalilabad focus zone |
Imax=82 |
8. Ganja – Goygol focus zone |
Imax= 91 |
9. Sharur – Igdir focus zone |
Imax= 93 |
Kalbajar – garabagh focus zone |
Imax= 92 |
10. Daghlig Talish focus zone |
Imax=81 |
10. Zangazur focus zone |
Imax= 92 |
Complex geological – geophysical and hydrogeological investigations carried out the with the purpose of control to examination of the seismogeodynamic conditions of the territory of the republic are executed in the regional observation net consisting of 17 areas and 3 seismological polygons (Shamakhi – Ismayilli, Mingachevir – Shamkir and Absheron).
With the purpose of examination of the seismogedynamic conditions, according to the seismic, magnet tellurions, gravity-magnetic and other investigation results carried out in the seismoactive areas, as to the made depth cuts, Azerbaijan cuts of mega structures of Great and Small Caucasus have composite geological – tectonic and seismological conditions and they are the areas with intensive neotectonic acts.
The geo-structures having seismogenetic zonal in Caucasus direction are considered active zones. But, in stages of separate seismic activity, different cuts of these zones are characterized with the seismic “calmness”. It can be explained with the seismogenetic structures observing in the result of cut with depth breaks with width direction of Caucasus zonal. Main seismogenetic tectonic damages lines settled the mapped and seismogeodynamic condition may generate the earthquakes in different powers according their location and parameters. So, depth break zones limited great geostructures can generate earthquake of 9 grades and geostructure internal tectonic breaks may generate the earthquake of 7-8 grades. But intrablock tectonic damaged zones with small sizes may generate many dotted and weak earthquakes.
Seismogenerational zone and structure, hypocentral areas determined on models made for the seismoactive areas, may give an opportunity for the selection of the seismic risk zones and forecasting of potential focuses. Existence of the zones of low speed observed in different stages in the geological cut influence the character of the geodynamic processes. Differing from Great and Small Caucasus meganticlinal, weak seismicity of Kur depression may be explained with the existence of the rhyolite layer.
In regional plan, depending of geodynamic condition of the Anadolu – Zagros seismogedynamic zone on the intensity of the tensional deformation processing existed in the result of tangential attack with northern – eastern direction of Arabia bed and opening of the Red Sea reef zone, sticking of devastating earthquake in this region in last years are the evidences that, tectonic processes are entered into new and more active phase. After severe earthquake sticken in 2000 on the tectonic damage zone of Great Caucasus, in 1999 in the tectonic damage zone of Northern Anadolu – Zagros limited the great geostructures though the discharging of the seismic energy along the longwise zonal in this cut of the Alps – Himalayas creased system is observed, increasing of the tension with the collecting of the endogen energy along the break lines with the width and orthogonal directions is being continued. This is certified by the earthquake that stuck in 2003 in Turkey (Bingol). Last seismic process happened in the southern west part of Eastern – Anadolu and Levant tectonic break playing the main role in the formation of the seismogeodynamic condition of the region makes the supposition for continuing of the migration of earthquake focus in the direction of north. At present, Western Caucasus is considered the highest seismic zone in Caucasus.
In the sphere of forecasting of severe and devastating earthquakes, preventing of its harmful effects and decreasing to minimum, practical – methodological investigations have been carried out since 1979 and investigations in the practical direction have been carried out since 1986 in the Republic of Azerbaijan.
Preparation of long term forecasting maps caused to the directing to the determination of the new stage of the investigations, criteria of average and short term forecasting. For the first, in the seismoactive areas of the territory of the republic, depth structure of 60 km until Mokhorovichich of the earth’s crust on the geotraverse cutting the main earthquake focuses and great geostructures had been investigated and potential seismic risk zones had been determined, by defining the main seismogen zone and structures. At present, with the purpose of preparation of new method of forecasting of its time, place and power and determination of the prognostic signs of seismic processes, the following methods are used which tested on world practice:
- Preparation of the geodynamic models of earth’s crust;
- Variation of the hydrodynamic parameters of underground pressure waters;
- Variation of the geomagnetic areas;
- Variation of the geoelectric areas;
- Concentration of rado (alpha active gas) in soil;
- Investigating of the microseism (seismic – noise);
- Investigating of the changes of the physical – mechanical features and chemical structure of the underground waters;
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